-Yutong deserves to be the pioneer in China's bus industry. The company has strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities. It is the first auto company in China to attain the qualification of “exemption from inspection for exports”. It has a comprehensive product range, with 203 bus product lines. With body length ranging from 5m to 25m, its product range covers highway passenger transit, tourist coach, public transport, business vehicle, coach and specialized bus.

-The company completed the management buyout. The direction and value of the management and controlling shareholders were finally aligned. Efficient and aggressive corporate governance, supreme product quality resulting from continuous investment in R&D have strengthened the company's competitive advantage. Moreover, amid the favourable growth environment of the industry fueled by the rapid economic growth since of the opening and reform of China, both the revenue and net profit of the main business recorded a positive growth for the past 18 consecutive years, with a CAGR of 27% and 31% respectively.

-We are optimistic about the medium to long term development of the domestic bus market. The reasons are as follows: firstly the policy of the Chinese government to “give priority to public transport development”, secondly, the short-distanced travel will have a positive impact on the sales of buses. We forecast that the sales volume growth rate of domestic large/medium-sized buses can be maintained at 15% or above for the next several years. Being the industry leader, Yutong will fully benefit from it.

-For the first three quarters, revenue from the main business grew by 25% yoy to RMB18.93 billion. Net profit attributable to parent company rose by 35.3% yoy to RMB1.865 billion. Sales of the new energy models grew explosively. Its rising contribution was the main reason for faster growth in earnings than volume.

-After gaining experience in a long period, the company pioneers in the technology of new energy buses. At present, the company's new energy bus models include 10-18m plug-in hybrid buses and 6-12m pure electric buses. In 2014, sales volume of the company's new energy buses was 7,405 units. We expect sales volume to reach 18,000 units in 2015, representing a remarkable growth of 140% yoy. We expect its pioneering technological advantage and economies of scale will ensure that the new energy products of company will get a upper hand in the new round of government subsidies to promote new energy vehicles.

Investment Thesis

We forecast that the company's EPS in 2015/2016 will be RMB1.45 and RMB1.73. Considering the leading position of the company in the industry and its continued technological advancement in new energy vehicles to drive down costs and broaden its market, our target price is set at RMB27. It is equivalent to a prospective 2015/2016 PE of 19x and 16x respectively. We recommend a “BUY” rating in our initial coverage. (Closing price as at 25 Dec 2015)

Company Profile- Pioneer of domestic bus

The company mainly engages in the research and development (R&D), manufacturing and sale of buses. It was established in 1993 and was previously the Zhengzhou bus factory. The company was listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1997 and its current market capitalization is around RMB48 billion.

The company deserves to be the pioneer in China's bus industry. Its sales volume ranked the first in the industry for 12 consecutive years. Based on its sales volume in 2015H1, it took 22% of the domestic bus market. Its market share in the large/medium-sized buses was 33%. Its market share in the school bus sub-segment was 35%. It ranked the first in all these sub-segments. Its top 5 customers contributed around 15% to its sale revenue.

It is obvious that the large/medium-sized bus market in China in oligopolistic in nature. The combined market share of Yutong Bus and Jinlong Motors (including Xiamen Golden Dragon Holdings, Xiamen Golden Dragon and Suzhou Jinlong) reached 60%. In this monopolistic market, these two companies have a significant competitive advantage.

Comparative advantage promotes steady growth

The company has strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities. It is the first auto company in China to attain the qualification of “exemption from inspection for exports”. It has a comprehensive product range, with 203 bus product lines. With body length ranging from 5m to 25m, its product range covers highway passenger transit, tourist coach, public transport, business vehicle, coach and specialized bus.

The company is located in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province. Its main production base covers 1,700 acres of land, with internationally advanced production lines of chassis frame electrophoresis, body electrophoresis and robotic spraying. The daily production capacity is 325 units or above and is the world's largest and most technically advanced single production plant for large/medium-sized buses. In 2012, the newly completed new energy bus plant occupies more than 2,000 acres of land, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 units. It is the most advanced new energy bus production plant in China and is the largest in the world.

In 2004, the company completed the management buyout. The de facto governing body shifted from Zhengzhou Financial Bureau to the 21 senior management executives, including the managing director Mr. Tang Xuxiang. The direction and value of the management and controlling shareholders were finally aligned.

Efficient and aggressive corporate governance, supreme product quality resulting from continuous investment in R&D have strengthened the company's competitive advantage. Moreover, amid the favourable growth environment of the industry fueled by the rapid economic growth since of the opening and reform of China, both the revenue and net profit of the main business recorded a positive growth for the past 18 consecutive years, with a CAGR of 27% and 31% respectively. Besides, it has exercised good cost control. Its economies of scale and bargaining power in procurement ensured its gross margin to remain stable.

Optimistic about the growth potential of the domestic bus market

The company mainly sells medium to large-sized buses which accounted for over 80% of its total sales. In recent years, the rising demand for school buses has increased the contribution from light buses from 7% in 2011 to 15% in 2015H1. For the first 11 months of 2015, Yutong sold 56,696 units of buses, representing an increase of 11.3% yoy. Of which, the sales volume of large, medium and small-sized buses was 22,245; 23,446 and 11,005 respectively, representing a growth of 2.9%, 5.1% and 56.8% yoy and accounting for 39.2%, 41.4% and 19.4% of total sales volume.

For the first three quarters, revenue from the main business grew by 25% yoy to RMB18.93 billion. Net profit attributable to parent company rose by 35.3% yoy to RMB1.865 billion. Sales of the new energy models grew explosively. Its rising contribution was the main reason for faster growth in earnings than volume.

We are optimistic about the medium to long term development of the domestic bus market. The reasons are as follows: firstly the policy of the Chinese government to “give priority to public transport development” provides ensures the demand for city buses. According to the plan of the Chinese government, the urbanization rate will reach 60% by 2020 and to 70% by 2030. The continued rise in the urbanization rates ensures a sustainable demand for buses. Secondly, the short consecutive holiday arrangement and the continued demand growth for short-distanced travel will have a positive impact on the sales of tourist coaches. We forecast that the sales volume growth rate of domestic large/medium-sized buses can be maintained at 15% or above for the next several years. Being the industry leader, Yutong will fully benefit from it.

New energy bus business is expected to enter into an explosive growth phase

After gaining experience in a long period, the company pioneers in the technology of new energy buses. By the end of 2014, the company has applied for 273 patents for new energy buses, including 86 invention patents. In recent years, the company has invested heavily in the new energy arena. The total investment on the company's new energy bus production base has been close to RMB4 billion. The company also invested RMB330 million to build a technology R&D centre and RMB1 billion to set up a new energy industry development fund, which will be used to research and produce the upstream auto parts for new energy vehicles and to come up with sales and operation solutions in the downstream.

At present, the company's new energy bus models include 10-18m plug-in hybrid buses and 6-12m pure electric buses. In 2014, sales volume of the company's new energy buses was 7,405 units. We expect sales volume to reach 18,000 units in 2015, representing a remarkable growth of 140% yoy. We expect its pioneering technological advantage and economies of scale will ensure that the new energy products of company will get a upper hand in the new round of government subsidies to promote new energy vehicles.

Valuation

We forecast that the company's EPS in 2015/2016 will be RMB1.45 and RMB1.73. Considering the leading position of the company in the industry and its continued technological advancement in new energy vehicles to drive down costs and broaden its market, our target price is set at RMB27. It is equivalent to a prospective 2015/2016 PE of 19x and 16x respectively. We recommend a “BUY” rating in our initial coverage.

Financials

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