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16 Aug, 2022 (Tuesday)

            
LI NING(2331)
Analysis:
Inspite of the impact of repeated outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and significant increase in raw material prices, LiNing`s (2331) revenue for the six months ended 30 June 2022 still increased by 21.7% to RMB12,409 million. The net profit attributable to equity holders increased by 11.6% to RMB2,189 million, mainly attributable to operation improvement which helped mitigate certain extent of the negative impact from the COVID-19. The fundamentals of the Group remained solid and resilient. Going forward, the Group will adhere to the strategy of “Single Brand, Multi-categories, Diversified Channels” and continue to optimize LI-NING`s experience value by continuing to improve its product layout and enhance both retail operation capability and channel efficiency, thereby perfecting the supply chain management system. (I do not hold the above stock)
Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $69.00, Target Price: $76.00, Cut Loss Price: $65.00


HAICHANG HLDG(2255)
Analysis:
Haichang Ocean Park has more than 20 years of experience in operating marine theme parks and the ability to raise and conserve 140+ thousand large marine and polar animals. On the one hand, these two advantages have built the company`s hard asset moat in the domestic marine park field, on the other hand It has laid the foundation for the soft assets strength of the company`s management output. In the past few years, the company`s revenue and performance were affected by the impact of the epidemic, and the performance fell sharply. However, with the gradual reopening of the company`s parks, the most difficult period has passed. We expect the demand for peri-city travel and family-friendly travel will continue to suffer from suppressed outbound travel. The follow-up Shanghai Phase II project is expected to advance. The Sanya project will fully benefit from the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port. The company`s stock price is open to the upside.
Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $7.50, Target Price: $12.10, Cut Loss Price: $5.00



Xtep International (1368.HK) - 1H2022 Positive profit alert in line with consensus

1H2022 Positive profit alert in line with consensus

Xtep announced the operation data of 2Q2022. Xtep core brand products retail sell-through (including offline and online channels) grew by mid-teens (30 % – 35 % growth in 1Q2022), retail discount level at 25% – 30% (25% discount at 1Q2022). For the six months ended 30 June 2022, core brand products retail sell-through (including offline and online channels) grew by 20 % – 25 %, and inventory turnover was around 4.5 months (about 4 months in 1H2021, 1Q2022), estimated to be related to the impact of the COVID.

Xtep also expected to record a significant increase of not less than 35% in its unaudited consolidated profit attributable to shareholders for 1H2022 as compared to that for the corresponding period in 2021, which is also in line with market consensus. Such increase was primarily due to a not less than 35% growth in consolidated revenue mainly attributable to: (1) remarkable sales fair orders resulting from encouraging retail performance of the core Xtep brand and Xtep Kids` business driven by their breakthrough in product innovation, retail channel upgrade and increased brand awareness; and (2) an impressive YoY revenue growth of over 100% for Saucony under the professional sports segment owing to its strong retail sales particularly in its e-commerce business.

Adverse impact of COVID on the economy is fading in June, 618 sales growth 64%

The adverse impact of the latest round of COVID outbreaks on the economy is fading, and the resumption of work and production in key cities, core brand products sales are expected to gradually improve. In fact, according to the 618 Shopping Festival sales data in 2022, Xtep recorded a 64% YoY online sales growth to RMB650mn, while the online sales of the core Xtep brand surged 61% to RMB590mn and those of Xtep Kids swelled 103% to RMB75mn. Saucony's even rocketed 135%, the most among all international sports shoe brands during the Festival.

Company valuation

In 2Q2022, Xtep's core brand products retail sales growth slowed down due to the impact of the resurgence in pandemic. However, Xtep continues to cooperate with international brand distributors and launched a new store in Tangshan Rongda Shopping Mall with Pou Sheng in July. With the expansion of quality channels, which may help the sales growth of core brand and offset the impact of the COVID in the first half of the year. We adjust our FY2022E EPS forecast to RMB0.43 (down slightly compare with March 2022 report), with TP at HKD13.01, represents of 26.2x P/E (equivalent to the average P/E ratio of the past 2 years plus 1 standard deviation). We downgrade our investment rating to “Neutral”.

Risk factors

1) Resurgence in COVID in mainland; 2) Weak domestic growth and consumer spending in sportsware; 3) Intensified competition in the industry; and 4) Slower-than-expected in new brands development.

Financial

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Recommendation on 16-8-2022
RecommendationNeutral
Price on Recommendation Date$ 12.800
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 13.010
Writer Info
Eric Li
(Research Analyst)
Tel: (+852 2277 6516)
Email:
erichyli@phillip.com.hk

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