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29 Dec, 2023 (Friday)

            
UNI MEDICAL(2666)
Analysis:
GENERTEC UNIVERSAL MEDICAL GROUP (2666) is a listed company controlled by a central state-owned enterprise and focusing on healthcare industry. It is principally engaged in the provision of medical services to the public, provision of various services for customers in hospitals in the PRC such as life cycle management of equipment, discipline operation and digital medical services, and offering comprehensive financial solutions centered on finance leasing for customers. As of 30 June 2023, it had consolidated the accounts of 55 medical institutions (including four Grade III Class A hospitals and 26 Grade II hospitals), with a capacity of 13,893 beds in total. The number of beds of medical institutions that were included within the management system but not yet consolidated was over 2,000. The currently planned number of internally built beds exceeded 4,000 in total. For the first nine months ended 30 September 2023, the Group achieved a stable growth in operating results: the revenue of the Group increased by approximately 15% as compared with the corresponding period of 2022, the profit for the period increased by 5.7% as compared with the corresponding period of 2022, among which the profit of the finance business remained stable as compared with the corresponding period of 2022, and the profit of the healthcare business increased substantially by approximately 60% as compared with the corresponding period of 2022, and the profit for the period attributable to ordinary shareholders of the parent increased by approximately 4.3% as compared with the corresponding period of 2022. (I do not hold the above stock)
Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $4.35, Target Price: $4.75, Cut Loss Price: $4.15


TIANQI LIT(002466.SZ)
Analysis:
Tianqi Lithium holds the world's largest and best lithium ore resources in production, with the world's largest ore lithium extraction and processing capacity. Its unique resource endowment and pricing power make it a leader in the upstream sector of the domestic new energy vehicle industry chain. Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of destocking in the industrial chain, lithium salt prices have significantly fallen from high levels. In the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved a revenue of 33.399 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 35.52%; The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.33%. However, in the medium to long term, the high growth expectations, cost support, and policy tilt of downstream terminals, especially new energy vehicles, ships, and energy storage industries, are foreseeable. The fundamentals of the lithium industry are expected to continue to improve in the coming years. The company has laid out the world's highest quality lithium resources and implemented a vertically integrated business model, achieving 100% self-sufficiency in lithium concentrate raw materials. Combined with leading lithium compound production and processing levels, it can maximize the profit margin of lithium products. In the future, with the expansion of production capacity, the leading position will continue to be consolidated.
Strategy:
Buy-in Price: RMB54.00, Target Price: RMB65.00, Cut Loss Price: RMB48.00 (Buy-in Price: $41.30, Target Price: $49.40, Cut Loss Price: $37.00)



Weichai (2338.HK) - Continue to Lead in Market Share, Profitability Rallies Significantly

Company Profile

Weichai is one of the automobile and equipment manufacturing groups with the strongest comprehensive strength in China's heavy truck industry. Based on the powertrain system including engine, axle and gearbox, the Company extends upstream components and downstream heavy trucks, and takes the lead in forklifts and intelligent warehousing. After years of development, the Company has built a synergetic development pattern of four major industrial segments including powertrain (engine, transmission, axle/hydraulics), vehicle and machinery, intelligent logistics and other segments.

Investment Summary

Remarkable Performance Driven by Strong Demand for Natural Gas-fueled Heavy Trucks and Robust Exports

The domestic economy has entered a plateau phase, after an impulse-type increase at the beginning of the year. The heavy truck industry has been driven by multiple favorable factors, such as economic recovery, the constant release of policy effects, and a low base in the same period last year. Nevertheless, as affected by the complex international environment and insufficient domestic demand, the industry still faces certain pressure. Specifically, 701 thousand heavy trucks were cumulatively sold from January to September 2023, with an increase of 34%yoy. The cumulative sales this year so far have already surpassed the total sales of 670 thousand last year.

Particularly, as natural gas prices are dramatically lower than diesel prices, natural gas-fueled heavy trucks have emerged to be the most eye-catching segment during the recovery of the heavy truck industry this year. The cumulative domestic sales of natural gas-fuelled heavy trucks from January to September amounted to 107.4 thousand, up 255% yoy. Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Weichai Power" or the "Company") is, without a doubt, the leader of engines for natural gas-fueled heavy trucks in China, with a market share of nearly 70%. Additionally, the export of heavy trucks has maintained a fast growth this year. Statistically, 210 thousand heavy trucks were exported from January to September, up 70% yoy, which represented up to 30% of the total exports and hit a record high.

Thanks to several favorable factors, Weichai Power sold 548 thousand engines in the first three quarters, which climbed by 24.5% yoy. Particularly, 52 thousand of them were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. In terms of commercial vehicle business, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Automotive Co., Ltd. (Shaanxi Zhongqi), a controlling subsidiary of the Company, sold 92 thousand heavy trucks in the first three quarters, up 52% yoy, wherein 42 thousand were exported with a year-on-year increase of 71.9%. In regard to intelligent logistics business, KION Group AG (KION), a controlling subsidiary of the Company, recorded the net profit before interest and tax of EUR570 million in the first three quarters, which jumped by 171.6% yoy.

Continue to Lead in Market Share, Profitability Rallies Significantly

In accordance with the reports of Weichai Power for the first three quarters: The Company's revenue grew by 22.9% yoy to RMB160.38 billion from January to September 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company stood at RMB6.5 billion with a year-on-year growth of 96.3%. The basic EPS was RMB0.75. Particularly, the revenue for the third quarter was RMB54,248 million, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.9% and 2.9%, respectively. Additionally, the net profit attributable to the parent company amounted to RMB2,602 million, up 181.2% and 27.3% yoy and qoq, respectively.

With respect to registration, the Company occupied 34.1% of the engine market in the third quarter, up 10.1 ppts yoy. Meanwhile, the Company's large diameter engines feature a high ASP and strong profitability, thus maintaining a rapid growth in both sales and revenue in recent years. The Company occupied more than 30% of the domestic market of engines for heavy trucks above 500 horsepower, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20 ppts.

Benefiting from the scale effect, the optimized sales structure, and the improved profitability of the subsidiary, KION, the Company's profitability recovered prominently. The overall gross margin in the first three quarters was 20.2%, up 3.3 ppts yoy. The net profit margin was 5%, growing by 2.1 ppts yoy. ROE was 8.4%, which climbed by 3.7 ppts yoy. For the third quarter, the gross margin reached 21.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.6 ppts. The net profit margin was 5.9%, up 1.1 ppts qoq.

The Equity Incentive Plan Outperforms Expectations, Indicating Great Confidence

The Company plans to repurchase shares, as shown in its 2023 A-share Restricted Equity Incentive Plan Draft released. It intends to grant 85.44 million shares of restricted shares in total to 716 directors, senior executives, Middle Management members, and core technicians, accounting for 0.98% of the total share capital. The target values of revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 in the draft are RMB210.2 billion, RMB231.2 billion, and RMB258.9 billion, respectively. The profit margin from sales is 8%, 9%, and 9%, respectively, and the target values of profit equivalent to these figures are RMB16.8 billion, RMB20.8 billion, and RMB23.3 billion. The above objectives exceed market expectations, indicating the Company's great confidence in its future performance growth.

Looking ahead, the Company's result is expected to continue to benefit from the accelerating penetration into the market of natural gas-fueled heavy trucks, the emerging competitive advantage in large diameter engines, the abundant export demand, and the constant improvement in operations of overseas subsidiaries. In the long run, the heavy truck industry will usher in development opportunities, because of constant economic recovery and the continuous increase in highway transport efficiency. The Company will continue to unleash its advantage of business diversity, accelerate strategic business, such as large diameter engines, hydraulic pressure powertrains, agricultural equipment, intelligent logistics, and new energy, and promote its mid- and long-term development.nated.

Investment Thesis

the Company has a clear strategic framework of "power engine + hydraulics + new energy". The domestic and overseas markets go hand in hand. The space for future development may be expected.

We forecast the EPS of the Company to be RMB 1.00/1.08/1.39 in 2023/2024/2025. We will also revise target price to 15.3 HKD (14.1/13.0/10.1x P/E and 1.6/1.4/1.3x P/B for 2023/2024/2025) and Accumulate rating. (Closing price as at 20 December)

Financials

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Recommendation on 29-12-2023
RecommendationAccumulate
Price on Recommendation Date$ 12.840
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 15.300
Writer Info
Zhang Jing
(Research Analyst)
Tel: (+86 21 51699400-103)
Email:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

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