Investor Notes - Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd

26 Jun, 2025 (Thursday)

FOURTH PARADIGM(6682)
Analysis：
Against the backdrop of the China's accelerated development of artificial intelligence and the comprehensive embrace of AI transformation across industries, Fourth Paradigm (6682) has delivered outstanding performance in its core business, achieving rapid revenue growth. For the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, the Group's total revenue reached RMB 1.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%. Of this, revenue from the Fourth Paradigm Prophet AI Platform was RMB 805 million, surging 60.5% and accounting for 74.8% of total revenue. Gross profit was RMB 444 million, up 30.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.2%, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The Fourth Paradigm Prophet Platform underwent a significant upgrade in the first quarter of this year. Building on its existing robust AI model development toolchain, it further introduced a full-process AI Agent development platform. Enterprise customers can easily integrate over 150 mainstream large-scale models through the platform's built-in Model Hub and utilize dozens of built-in agent frameworks to construct a complete LLM Ops system, covering the entire lifecycle of AI Agent development. The Prophet Platform also introduced a rich, ready-to-use AI application matrix, featuring pre-installed intelligent application suites that address core enterprise scenarios, including AIGC, intelligent office, digital employees, intelligent Q&A, AI local search, analytical decision-making, model development tools, model repositories, and DevOps. In addition to continuously iterating its core platform capabilities, Fourth Paradigm has also expanded horizontally into high-frequency enterprise software products, collaborating with other leading enterprise software companies to empower the innovation of intelligent operational paradigms for Chinese enterprises. Recently, it signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Baiwang Co., Ltd. (6657). The two parties will focus on deep integration solutions combining “world models” and “data intelligence,” jointly exploring innovative applications of industry-specific large-scale models in areas such as transaction management, financial risk control, and decision optimization. Leveraging Baiwang's data resources and Fourth Paradigm's “AI Agent + World Model” technology, they aim to co-develop comprehensive solutions for the financial sector. The Group continues to expand its customer base, enhance service depth, and increase user stickiness, focusing on industries such as energy and power, finance, telecommunications, and transportation, while actively expanding into strategic sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, retail, and water conservancy. In the first quarter of this year, the number of benchmark users reached 59. While expanding its customer base, the Group also prioritizes deep penetration into high-value scenarios, further enhancing product stickiness. The average revenue contribution per benchmark user during the period was RMB 11.67 million, a 31.3% increase. (I do not hold the above stock)
Strategy：
Buy-in Price: $53.00, Target Price: $59.00, Cut Loss Price: $50.00

Ascentage(6855)
Analysis：
Buy-in Price: $77.00, Target Price: $90.00, Cut Loss Price: $70.00
Strategy：
The company is a biotechnology pharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the discovery, research and development, and commercialization of therapeutic drugs for hematological malignancies including chronic/acute myeloid leukemia, chronic/acute lymphocytic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, and multiple myeloma. In 2024, well-known MNC Takeda contributed 680 million yuan in option payments, directly driving the company's revenue to increase by 342% year-on-year to 981 million yuan. Among them, Nike achieved a sales revenue of 241 million yuan. The indications for the entire population of Nalike have been included in medical insurance at the beginning of the year, and the number of patients is 4-5 times higher than before. It is expected to achieve strong growth this year. The company's overseas layout is also accelerating, with the Nasdaq listing and cooperation with Takeda at the beginning of the year opening up growth opportunities in overseas markets.

Shuanghuan Driveline(002472.CH) - Accelerated Overseas Expansion and Diversified Product Portfolio Advance in Tandem

Company profile:

Shuanghuan Driveline specializes in the manufacturing of gear transmission products, with the gear business accounting for about 80% of the Company's total business. The Company has gradually shifted from traditional gear products to high-precision gears and parts. Its main products span gear products (gears for passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, motorcycles and electric tools), reducers and other products, which are mainly applied in the electric drive systems, gearboxes and axles of vehicles, as well as electric tools, rail transit, wind power, industrial robots and other sectors. The Company operates five production bases in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Dalian and other places.

Investment Summary

Strong Performance in New Energy Business Drives Rapid Net Profit Growth

In 2024, the Company recorded revenue of RMB8,781 million (RMB, the same below), up 8.76% yoy; net profit attributable to the parent company amounted to RMB1,024 million, up 25.42% yoy; net profit attributable to the parent company excluding non-recurring items was RMB1,001 million, up 24.64% yoy. EPS was RMB1.22, with a dividend per share of RMB0.226, representing a dividend payout ratio of 18.5%.

In Q1 2025, the Company reported revenue of RMB2,065 million, down 0.47% yoy, mainly due to the contraction of the steel trading business. Excluding this impact, core business revenue grew 12.5% yoy; net profit attributable to the parent company reached RMB276 million, up 24.70% yoy; and net profit attributable to the parent company excluding non-recurring items was RMB269 million, up 28.27% yoy.

Among the various business segments, the new energy vehicle (NEV) gear business delivered standout performance. In 2024, this segment generated revenue of RMB3.37 billion, accounting for 38.38% of the Company's total revenue, up 51.21% yoy, showing a strong upward trend. In Q1 2025, this segment continued to grow at a pace exceeding that of downstream NEV sales, further increasing its share of total revenue and becoming a key driver of performance growth.

The traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle gear segment recorded revenue of RMB1,954 million in 2024, down 1.99% yoy. In Q1 2025, this segment remained stable, with a yoy decline of approximately 5%.

The intelligent actuator segment posted revenue growth of over 69% yoy in 2024 and maintained a similar growth rate in Q1 2025.

The commercial vehicle gear segment saw a revenue decline of 18.01% yoy in 2024, mainly due to a significant yoy decrease in H2 2023. However, Q1 2025 revenue data suggests a gradual recovery from the bottom, with revenue surpassing that of Q3 and Q4 2024, although still down on a yoy basis. The Company is intensifying efforts to expand its presence in the commercial vehicle market by actively targeting leading overseas clients and strategically investing in NEV e-drive gear products for commercial vehicles.

The construction machinery gear segment remained stable across all quarters of 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue in Q1 2025 performing slightly better than that in Q3 and Q4 2024.

Improved Sales Structure Significantly Boosts Gross and Net Margins

The Company's gross margin increased from 22.24% in 2023 to 25.01% in 2024, up 2.8ppts yoy. In Q1 2025, gross margin further rose to 26.82%, up 4.17ppts yoy. This improvement was mainly due to a reduced share of low-margin steel trading and the scale effects of high value-added passenger vehicle gear business.

The Company maintained effective cost control and stable expense ratios: the period expense ratio stood at 10.59% in 2024, up 0.3ppt yoy, with selling/administration/R&D/financial expense ratios at 0.98%/3.99%/5.19%/0.43%, respectively, representing yoy changes of -0.03/-0.08/+0.44ppts/flat. In Q1 2025, the respective ratios were 1.0%/3.8%/5.4%/0.4%, up 0.06/0.1/0.6/-0.03ppts yoy, benefiting from ongoing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, as well as scale effects. The Company will continue to implement such initiatives in the coming years, including smart manufacturing and big data systems. The rise in R&D expense ratio reflects sustained investment in innovation.

The Company's net profit margin reached 11.66% in 2024, up 1.55ppts yoy; and rose further to 13.37% in Q1 2025, up 2.7ppts yoy, indicating continued improvement in profitability.

Accelerated Overseas Expansion and Diversified Product Portfolio Advance in Tandem

In the high-profile NEV gear field, the Company had established an annual production capacity of 6,500 thousand sets for NEV transmission gear shafts by the end of 2024, with full capacity utilisation. The production base for NEV transmission components in Hungary is currently in the equipment commissioning phase, with capacity to be gradually released based on existing orders. As construction of the Hungary plant progresses, delivery lead times and logistics costs will be reduced, laying a solid foundation for further global market expansion.

Centred on gear technology, the Company continues to advance its diversified product layout. Looking ahead to the next two to three years, development across business segments includes: first, driven by growing sales of domestic B-class and above models, demand for high-precision, low-noise gear products is surging. As a leading player in China's NEV gear market, the Company is expected to further increase its market share by leveraging its technological advantages and optimising its sales structure. Additionally, the coaxial reducer gear (used in industrial robots) and intelligent actuator (used in robotic vacuum cleaners) segments offer vast market potential and are likely to become new growth drivers. Other segments, including commercial vehicles and construction machinery, are expected to remain generally stable over the next two years..

Investment Thesis

Shuanghuan Driveline is a pacesetter in the domestic automotive gear industry and robotic RV reducer industry. By leveraging its advantages in capacity, management, R&D and customer base, the Company has seized the opportunities for upgrading brought by gear outsourcing and high industry barriers as a result of the booming new energy vehicle industry. Looking forward, the Company is expected to continuously benefit from the boom of new energy passenger vehicles, expansion of the industrial chains of automatic gearboxes of commercial vehicles, and rapid development of robotic reducers and gears for daily use.

As for valuation, we expected diluted EPS of the Company to RMB 1.48/1.72/2.07 of 2025/2026/2027. And we accordingly gave the target price to RMB35 respectively 24/20/17x P/E for 2025/2026/2027. "Accumulate" rating. (Closing price as at 24 June)

Risk

Progress of new production line is below expectations

Electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations

Macroeconomic downturn affects product demand

Sharply rising raw material prices or sharply falling product prices

Financials

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Recommendation on 26-6-2025
Recommendation	Accumulate
Price on Recommendation Date	$ 31.270
Suggested purchase price	N/A
Target Price	$ 35.000

Writer Info

Zhang Jing
(Research Analyst)

Tel: (+86 21 51699400-103)

Email:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

Enquiry : 2277 6666 OR investornotes@phillip.com.hk
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