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SAMSONITE(1910)
Analysis：
Samsonite announced its interim results for the period ending June 30, 2025, reporting net sales of $1.661 billion, a 6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 (or a 5.2% decrease on a constant currency basis). This decline was primarily due to the unprecedented “revenge travel” rebound from 2021 to 2023, during which the group’s business recovery outpaced the broader market. Recently, however, the group’s net sales trend has diverged from overall travel industry growth, reflecting a normalization post-rebound, increased macroeconomic uncertainties, and changes in trade policies, leading to more cautious purchasing by wholesale customers and weaker consumer sentiment resulting in reduced demand. Despite the sales decline, net sales were still 24.4% higher than the first half of 2019, pre-pandemic.
By region, net sales in North America and Asia fell by 7.7% and 7.3%, respectively, while sales in other regions remained relatively stable, with Europe posting a 1.6% increase and Latin America experiencing a slight 1% decline. By sales channel, wholesale net sales decreased by 7.4%. In contrast, the group’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel showed greater resilience, with net sales in the first half of 2025 declining by only 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting the group’s strength in building consumer relationships and strategic investments in DTC channels. Consequently, the DTC channel accounted for 39.6% of net sales in the first half of 2025, up 150 basis points from 38.1% in the first half of 2024. The group believes this shift will not only improve overall gross margins but also enhance the end-consumer brand experience and strengthen brand loyalty.
By brand, premium brands TUMI and Samsonite demonstrated greater resilience compared to the more value-oriented American Tourister brand. TUMI’s net sales in the first half of 2025 declined by only 2.5% year-on-year, with growth of 6.2% in Europe and 18.6% in Latin America. Samsonite’s net sales fell by 4.7%, with modest growth of 0.6% in Europe and 0.2% in Latin America. By product category, non-travel product categories, which have lower penetration in the overall business, showed greater resilience, with net sales growing by 0.1% and accounting for 36.2% of total net sales, up 180 basis points from the same period in 2024. This reflects the group’s efforts to expand product categories beyond core travel-related products. Notably, the Gregory brand saw a 14.7% increase in net sales, highlighting significant long-term growth potential for the brand and non-travel product categories.(I do not hold the mentioned stock.)
Strategy：
Buy-in Price: $16.50, Target Price: $18.00, Cut Loss Price: $15.70
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GEELY AUTO(175)
Analysis：
Geely's performance in the first half of 2025 is very impressive. The total revenue reached 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, setting a new historical high; The core attributable profit to the parent company was 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102%; The market share has exceeded 10% for the first time, reaching 10.4%. The core net profit of bicycles increased by 37% year-on-year to 4724 yuan. The total sales volume in the first half of the year reached 1.409 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 725000 units, a year-on-year increase of 126%, and the penetration rate of new energy increased to 51.5%. In addition, Geely Automobile has raised its annual sales target for 2025 to 3 million vehicles, an increase of 11% from the previous target.
Strategy：
Buy-in Price: $18.36, Target Price: $21.25, Cut Loss Price: $16.80
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Proya Cosmetics (603605.CH) - Revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time, and valuation remains attractive
OverviewAs a leading domestic cosmetics company, Proya Cosmetics primarily engages in R&D, production, and sales of cosmetic products. Its offerings span skincare, makeup, cleansing & personal care, and more. The company owns brands such as Proya, Hapsode, Timage, Off&Relax, CORRECTORS, INSBAHA, UZERO and Anya. Performance reviewIn 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.78 billion with a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 21.04%, surpassing the RMB 10 billion mark for the first time, primarily driven by growth in online channel revenue. Operating costs were RMB 3.08 billion (YoY +15.18%). Selling expenses reached RMB 5.16 billion (YoY +29.93%), mainly due to increased brand promotion and marketing expenses. R&D expenses were RMB 210 million (YoY +21.21%), with an R&D expense ratio of 1.95%, remaining largely flat YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.55 billion (YoY +30%). Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1.12 billion (YoY -24.6%), primarily due to increased payments for goods, marketing expenses, taxes, and employee compensation. Basic earnings per share (EPS) were RMB 3.93 (YoY +30.56%). In Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of RMB 2.36 billion (YoY +8.13%). Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 390 million (YoY +28.87%). Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 675 million (YoY +56.78%). Basic EPS was RMB 0.99 (YoY +30.26%). The Q1 revenue growth rate was notably slower than the full-year 2024 growth. We attribute this primarily to Q1 not being the peak season for cosmetics consumption, which is typically concentrated in the summer months (June-August) and during major year-end promotional events (October-December). Outstanding 618 Performance: Topping Platform Brand RankingsAccording to National Bureau of Statistics data, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in H1 2025 reached RMB 2,4545.8 billion (YoY +5%). Retail sales of cosmetics amounted to RMB 229.1 billion (YoY +2.9%), exceeding the H1 2024 growth rate, demonstrating the industry's resilience and sustained upward trend. Data from Qingyan Intelligence shows that the total GMV across four major platforms (Taobao/Tmall, Douyin, JD.com, Kuaishou) during the 2025 618 shopping festival period (May 13 - June 18) reached RMB 65.91 billion with a YoY increase of over 10%. This year, Tmall simplified its promotions, replacing complex tiered discounts with a straightforward ൗ% Official Instant Discount," supplemented by category and general consumption coupons. This approach maintained competitive pricing while avoiding excessive "cutthroat price competition." The company delivered an outstanding 618 performance across its brands:
Proya: Topped multiple platform rankings, including Tmall Beauty (Full Period), Douyin 618 Good Things Festival (Skincare), JD.com Domestic Beauty Brand, and Pinduoduo Domestic Beauty Brand.
Timage: Experienced strong growth across three major platforms, ranking first in Tmall Color Cosmetics, second in JD.com Domestic Color Cosmetics, and fifth in Douyin Domestic Color Cosmetics, with GMV growth 10%+, 20%+, and 30% YoY respectively. Key products like the Little Round Tube Foundation, Primer, Trio Contour Palette, and Trio Concealer topped their categories.
Off&Relax: Achieved over 148%+ YoY growth across all channels, hitting new record high. Tmall dual-store GMV grew over 110%+ YoY, Douyin dual-store GMV surged over 200%+ YoY, and JD.com dual-store GMV jumped over 270%+ YoY. Star products like the OR Anti-Hair Loss Serum, Volumizing Shampoo, and Hair Oil performed exceptionally well.
Hapsode: GMV grew 23.5% YoY on Douyin, 69% on JD.com, and 23% on Pinduoduo.
INSBAHA: Achieved over 106%+ YoY GMV growth across all platforms and is rapidly emerging as one of the company's fastest-growing new brands, poised to contribute significantly to future incremental growth. Strategic Collaboration with Bota Bio: Exploring Synthetic BiologyIn May 2025, Proya signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Bota Bio, marking its first partnership with a synthetic biology enterprise. The collaboration will focus on integrating synthetic biology and AI technologies for the innovative development and application of cosmetics and biomedical aesthetic materials. The partners aim to jointly build an innovation matrix for bio-based functional active ingredients, accelerating breakthroughs and enabling diverse applications in cosmetics and biomedical materials. This will provide consumers with more effective, green, and safe products. The collaboration is expected to enhance Proya's competitiveness in bio-based ingredient innovation, product technology barrier creation, and sustainability. Strategic Partnership with Ant Group: AI Empowering BeautyIn May 2025, Proya entered a strategic partnership with Ant Group's Beijing Digital Mali Technology Co., Ltd. Beijing Digital Mali Technology will assist Proya in enhancing consumer experience through AI-powered cloud customer service, AI smart inspection, and full-chain user experience solutions. It will also leverage AI to boost Proya's competitiveness in enterprise digital operations, energy conservation, emission reduction, and green initiatives. This collaboration is a key step in Proya's digital transformation, aiming for short-term cost reduction and efficiency gains through AI customer service and smart quality inspection, better supporting operational stability during peak sales seasons. Partnership with Top-Tier Hospital: Collaborative R&D on Mitochondrial Anti-AgingIn July 2025, the company signed an agreement with West China Hospital of Sichuan University focusing on "mitochondrial anti-aging" research. This aims to leverage cutting-edge medical research to empower cosmetic innovation, establishing a full-chain "industry-academia-research-medicine" collaborative model. Mitochondrial research is becoming a crucial frontier in tech-driven anti-aging. The partnership will integrate West China Hospital's advanced research resources to deeply investigate the intrinsic link between mitochondrial function and skin aging at the cellular level, identify key pathways and targets, accelerate R&D and screening of potent anti-aging actives, and lay a solid foundation for future product applications. However, mitochondrial anti-aging research involves complex biological mechanisms, and the path from basic research to marketable products is lengthy, carrying risks of delayed or unsuccessful technology translation. Valuation and Investment RecommendationThe competitive landscape of the beauty industry is undergoing a reshuffle. Only brands with strong product competitiveness and adept platform resource utilization will thrive. Proya possesses robust product innovation and channel operation capabilities within the domestic beauty sector. Its consistent execution of the "hot product strategy" and continuous portfolio enrichment solidify its leadership position. We anticipate the company will gradually transition from high growth to a more stable phase, but double-digit revenue growth is still expected in the near term.
We forecast the company's operating revenue for 2025-2027 at RMB 12.39 billion, RMB 14.10 billion, and RMB 15.79 billion, respectively. EPS is projected at RMB 4.56, RMB 5.31, and RMB 6.02 for 2025-2027. This translates to P/E ratios of 18.11x, 15.54x, and 13.72x for 2025-2027. We assign a target price of RMB 114, representing 25x our projected 2025 P/E, and maintain a "Buy" rating. Risk Factors1) Downward macroeconomic situation;
2) Intensified industry competition;
3) Management changes;
4) New product promotion failing to meet expectations. Financial Data
Current Price as of: 11 Aug 2025
Source： PSHK Est. Download PDF Version Here...
| Recommendation on 15-8-2025 | | Recommendation | Buy | | Price on Recommendation Date | $ 82.580 | | Suggested purchase price | N/A | | Target Price | $ 114.000 |
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