Company Profile

Geely is one of the leading enterprises in China's self-brand passenger vehicles manufacturers. The Company's products include six major brands, Geely, Lynk & Co, Zeekr, covering the A0 to C-class passenger vehicles market.

Investment Summary

26Q1 Sales Remained Largely Flat, with Premiumisation Strategy Showing Bright Spots. In the first quarter of 2026, Geely Auto delivered a cumulative 709.4 thousand vehicles, up 0.8% yoy, setting a new record high for the same period in history and regaining the top position among domestic brands. Among them, Geely brand's China Star recorded Q1 sales of 312 thousand units, down 5.5% yoy, while Galaxy sold 239 thousand units, down 8.0% yoy.

Among the sub-brands, the premium brands delivered standout performance: LYNK&CO sold 82 thousand units, up 12.5% yoy, while Zeekr sold 77 thousand units, up 86.1% yoy. The premium SUV model Zeekr 9X achieved a smooth ramp-up, with cumulative Q1 sales exceeding 20 thousand units and March sales surpassing 10 thousand units. It is the Company's first full-size premium SUV equipped with Super Hybrid technology, and also the first to feature the SEA AI Digital Chassis and the G-Pilot H9 intelligent assisted driving system.

With an average selling price of over RMB 530 thousand, it has significantly enhanced brand strength and the profitability potential following scale-up. We believe that the launch of flagship 9-series models, such as the LYNK&CO 900, Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Company's premiumisation strategy in the SUV segment.

Explosive Growth in Exports

In overseas markets, Geely Auto recorded cumulative exports of 203 thousand units in Q1, up 125.7% yoy, far exceeding the industry's average growth rate of 56.7%, representing explosive growth and accounting for 28.6% of total sales. In the European market, the Company has completed brand layout in five core countries—Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. In the Southeast Asian market, Geely Xingyuan has commenced deliveries and is gradually advancing localised production.

In Latin America and the Middle East, the LYNK&CO and Zeekr brands are accelerating market penetration. The Company has provided 2026 full-year export sales guidance of no less than 640 thousand units, with a target of 750 thousand units, equivalent to yoy growth of 52.4% to 78.6%. Export business is expected to become the most important growth driver this year.

We believe that the rapid volume expansion and high profitability of overseas markets will help offset the slowdown in domestic sales and improve profit margins.

New Energy Vehicles Account for Over Half

Geely Auto's new energy transition is entering an accelerated phase. In Q1 2026, the Company's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 369.1 thousand units, up 9% yoy, with the penetration rate rising to 52%, and further increasing to 55% in March alone. From a structural perspective, plug-in hybrid models contributed more incremental growth within Geely's new energy product portfolio, up 62% yoy and currently accounting for 44%, while pure electric models declined by 13% yoy, accounting for 56%.

Recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to volatility in oil prices, which has objectively accelerated the global adoption of electric vehicles. In the long term, this trend benefits leading automakers with advantages in products, technology, cost, and supply chains. The Company's new energy vehicle segment is expected to achieve a favourable trajectory of simultaneous volume and profit growth.

Strong Performance Last Year, Core Net Profit up 36%

According to the Company's 2025 annual report, full-year revenue reached RMB 345,232 million, up 25.1% yoy; net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 16,852 million, up 0.2% yoy. Excluding foreign exchange gains, impairment losses, and gains from the deemed disposal of subsidiaries in 2024, core net profit attributable to the parent company amounted to RMB 14.41 billion, up 36% yoy.

The strong performance was mainly driven by robust sales growth, which led to the release of scale effects, as well as optimisation of product mix and synergies from strategic integration. In 2025, the Company recorded cumulative sales of 3,024.6 thousand units, up 39.0% yoy, of which new energy vehicle sales reached 1,687.8 thousand units, up 90.0% yoy. Gross margin in 2025 was 16.61%, up 0.1 ppts yoy; core net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased to 4.2%, up 0.5 ppts yoy.

The rising sales mix of Zeekr contributed significantly to the improvement in overall gross margin. In terms of expense ratios, the sales/administration/R&D expense ratios were 5.92%/1.88%/5.1%, respectively, representing yoy changes of -0.04/-0.39/+0.14 ppts. This was mainly due to increased investment in the R&D of new models and platforms, as well as a lower capitalisation ratio of R&D expenses.

Looking ahead, as the One Geely strategy continues to deepen, the cost reduction effect from declining expense ratios—driven by technology sharing and cost optimisation—will continue to materialise.

Investment Thesis

We revised our financial forecast and target price to HKD 26.6, equivalent to 12.5/10.8/8.4x PE ratio in 2026/2027/2028, and we give the rating of Accumulate. Closing price as at 15 April.

Geely's PE Band trend

Source: Wind, Company, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research

Financial

(Closing price as at 15 April)

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